Could the political landscape of Virginia, a state that has leaned Democratic in recent presidential elections, be on the verge of a seismic shift?.
Some Republicans are cautiously optimistic, believing that the tide may be turning in their favor. This optimism stems from the first week of early voting in the state, which has shown a surge in ballots cast from rural, Republican-leaning counties. However, it's important to note that these Republicans are also aware that flipping Virginia remains a long shot.
According to Newsweek, the Democrats have been on a winning streak in Virginia at the presidential level. Since President Barack Obama turned the state blue in 2008, every presidential race has been won by the Democrats, with President Joe Biden winning by a 10-point margin in 2020. However, the Republicans made a significant comeback in 2021 when Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, won the gubernatorial race, and conservatives secured other statewide offices.
Republicans are hoping to replicate this success in the upcoming November elections. Current polls suggest that Vice President Kamala Harris maintains a lead, albeit a smaller one than Biden's victory margin four years ago.
Early voting in Virginia commenced on September 20, making it one of the first states to open its polls ahead of the election. By the end of the first week, 223,998 ballots were cast, only slightly fewer than the 226,385 ballots cast at the same time in 2020. However, the composition of these ballots has shifted since the last election, according to data from the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP).
In the first week of early voting, rural, Republican-leaning counties cast significantly more ballots than they did in the first week of early voting in 2020. Conversely, Democratic counties cast fewer ballots than they did four years ago. While it's risky to read too much into this early data, it does suggest that Virginia Republicans are enthusiastic about casting their votes for the former president.
David Gordon, the director of The Virginia Project, a Republican PAC, attributes the increased turnout in conservative counties to Republican efforts to encourage conservative voters to vote early. "Traditionally, Democrats blow out the margins on early vote in-person and mail both, as they have had a greater preference for those voting methods. However, this year Republican committees made a priority to specifically push in-person early voting," he said.
New Kent County, a rural county near the coast of the Chesapeake Bay that backed Trump by 30 points in 2020, saw the greatest increase in turnout compared to four years ago. Meanwhile, turnout in more Democratic areas in the wealthy Washington, D.C. suburbs of Alexandria, Arlington, and Prince Williams County is down from 2020.
However, this doesn't necessarily mean that voters in these areas won't turn out closer to the election. In Prince Williams County, a densely populated suburban county that backed President Biden by more than 26 points in 2020, only one polling place has opened so far, with more scheduled to open in October.
Turnout is also down in Loudoun County, a former Republican stronghold that has drifted toward Democrats and handily backed Biden in 2020. Loudoun is something of a bellwether for how suburban counties will vote across the country and will likely receive significant attention on election night, as Virginia is among the first states to report its results.
Fairfax County demonstrates why the early data may not necessarily be indicative of final turnout. Although its numbers on Thursday indicated lower turnout from 2020, it has not reported any of its mail-in ballots. Mail-in ballots are still expected to break heavily for Democrats, as they did in 2020. Fifty-eight percent of Biden voters did so by mail in 2020, compared to only 32 percent of Trump voters, according to data from the Pew Research Center.
Political scientist and Virginia electoral guru Larry Sabato expressed skepticism about the Republicans' chances of winning Virginia this year. "While upsets are always possible, it is highly probable that Harris will take Virginia. The demographics of the state's large, likely presidential electorate are clearly tilted to the Democrats. Trump has never been popular in the state, and that hasn't changed," he said.
Despite this, Gordon of the GOP-aligned Virginia Project said turnout for Virginia Republicans is "off the charts," comparing it to 2021. "The most striking part of it is all the disaffected voters who are coming back to the GOP. The chronic disconnect between national leadership and base voters caused a great many voters to simply stop voting altogether. Crushing inflation is bringing them back into play," he said.
Jeff Ryer, a spokesperson for Trump's Virginia operation, said the campaign has worked "diligently to ensure an impressive and winning performance in Virginia's early vote. Across the commonwealth, we have been priming President Trump's supporters to turn out in record numbers. The results speak for themselves: Republican voters are turning out to vote early at their highest rate ever," he said.
Despite the optimism from the Republican camp, Harris holds a polling lead in Virginia, and forecasters view her as a favorite to win the race in November. FiveThirtyEight's polling aggregate showed Harris leading by an average of seven points in recent polls.
In 2020, Biden won the state with 54.1 percent of the vote to Trump's 44 percent. The state was closer in 2016, when former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton carried it with 49.8 percent of the vote, compared to Trump's 44.4 percent.
Even if Trump isn't likely to win Virginia, his margin in the state could be a boon to Congressional Republicans' efforts to hold onto their narrow majority in the House of Representatives. Virginia has two competitive House races whose results will hinge on turnoutone race in the Seventh District seat, being vacated by Democratic Representative Abigail Spanberger, and another in the Second District held by Representative Jen Kiggans. Biden won both seats in 2020, but both parties are making plays for the districts this cycle.
While the early voting data may suggest a shift in Virginia's political landscape, it's important to remember that these are just the opening moves in a long game. The final outcome will be determined by a multitude of factors, including voter turnout on election day, the number of mail-in ballots, and the political climate closer to the election. As such, while the Republicans' optimism may be justified, it's still too early to predict whether Virginia will indeed flip in their favor.
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