Renowned American election forecaster Nate Silver has issued a stark warning, suggesting that former President Donald Trump could potentially win the 2024 presidential race.
Silver, a former professional poker player turned political analyst, has advised that contingency plans should be put into motion immediately.
According to the Daily Mail, Silver's predictive model indicates a 58 percent chance of Trump winning the Electoral College. Speaking to The Guardian during a promotional event for his new book 'On the Edge' in London, Silver emphasized the urgency of preparing for such an outcome. "One potential advantage of having a forecast that says it's 50/50, is that people should be making their contingency plans, like, right away," he stated.
Silver, however, clarified that these preparations do not necessarily involve extreme measures. "It doesn't mean you need [to stockpile] ammo and peanut butter," he said, adding a touch of humor. Instead, he suggested that the focus should be on strategies to safeguard American institutions in the event of a second Trump term or the rise of a Trump-like Republican in the future. "If I were a liberal donor, for example, I would want to begin funding now to protect institutions in that eventuality, instead of giving another $100,000 to Kamala Harris, who has more money than she needs," he continued.
While Silver's model gives Trump a significant chance of winning the Electoral College, it also predicts a 60 percent chance of Harris winning the popular vote. He emphasized the credibility of his model, stating, "People are going to interpret these polls however they can, and we have a way that's empirically sound to do that, and has a track record over 16 years."
Silver, who values intuition and emotional judgment in his forecasting, expressed concerns about the weakening of crucial 'guardrails' that prevented a 'complete and utter disaster' during Trump's first term. However, he cautioned Democrats against portraying Trump as an existential threat to democracy, arguing that such a strategy is 'very unappealing to swing voters.'
"There were a lot of guardrails in place last time that prevented complete and utter disaster, but those guardrails have been weakened," he said. He criticized the strategy of using fear to sway voters, describing it as 'holding voters hostage,' and suggested that it could backfire.
Regarding Harris, Silver acknowledged her 'joyfulness' and talent but expressed concerns about her retaining too many advisers from the Biden era. He questioned the wisdom of those who thought it was a good idea to keep running Biden, implying that Harris may face similar challenges. Despite the challenges ahead, Silver's analysis serves as a reminder of the unpredictable nature of politics and the importance of preparedness for all possible outcomes.
Login