The race to the White House between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is proving to be a tight one, with the state of Pennsylvania potentially holding the key to victory.
The state's significant weight in the electoral college, with its 19 votes, has been instrumental in the victories of 12 out of the last 15 presidents. As Trump and Harris vie for the state's favor, experts suggest that the candidate who can convince voters of their ability to handle the economy may ultimately secure the state's support.
According to the Daily Caller News Foundation, Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, stated, I think whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the presidency. Yeah, there are other ways to put all the pieces together. But the math winds up being fairly hard for Trump if he doesnt pull off Pennsylvania. He further emphasized Pennsylvania's importance as the largest swing state, noting the difficulty of replacing its 19 electoral votes.
The competition between Harris and Trump in Pennsylvania is intense, with Harris maintaining a slight lead over Trump in several polls. However, the two candidates are evenly matched at 49% in the Keystone state according to a Marist poll, and at 48% according to a Washington Post poll.
Both candidates have invested significant time and resources in the blue wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Trump managed to secure all three states in 2016, leading to his first presidential term, but lost them all in 2020. Dheeraj Chand, a Democratic strategist, expressed concern over Pennsylvania, stating, I think Pennsylvania is bothering people, because the paths to victory are very precarious, meaning you have to do everything just right.
Len Foxwell, a Democratic strategist based in Maryland, echoed this sentiment, describing Pennsylvania as a "true, legitimate swing state." He believes that the presidential election will be won in the "middle," requiring the candidates to balance support from Democratic voters in Philadelphia with voters in the rural parts of the state.
The economic issue that could potentially tip the scales in Pennsylvania is the state's oil and fracking industry, which Harris has historically opposed. During her 2020 presidential campaign, Harris stated unequivocally that she would end fracking if she became president. However, she reversed her stance during a September 10 debate, insisting that she "will not ban fracking." McHenry suggested that if Pennsylvania voters researched Harris's stance on fracking, they might find her position troubling.
The state's political landscape is currently dominated by Democrats, with Gov. Josh Shapiro, and Senators Bob Casey and John Fetterman all hailing from the Democratic party. However, Republican challenger David McCormick is within striking distance of Casey, according to the latest poll from The Washington Post.
As the race to the White House intensifies, Pennsylvania's role as a pivotal battleground state becomes increasingly clear. Foxwell stated, Pennsylvania serves as a harbinger. I think because of the size, the electoral prominence and the demographics that are represented within that voter base, I think its absolutely the pivotal battleground heading into these final weeks. As such, the state's decision could very well determine the next occupant of the Oval Office.
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