In a surprising turn of events, former President Donald Trump is now predicted to outperform Vice President Kamala Harris in the upcoming 2024 presidential election, according to a forecast by Nate Silver.
This marks the first time Trump has been favored since August 3, indicating a shift in the political landscape.
As reported by Newsweek, the race to November has seen Trump and Harris neck and neck, with many pollsters and forecasters deeming the election too close to call. Trump had maintained a steady lead until Harris, who replaced President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee after his withdrawal in July, entered the race. Her candidacy sparked a wave of enthusiasm among Democrats, leading to record-breaking fundraising and a surge in her poll numbers.
However, following the Democratic National Convention last week, Silver's election forecast delivered a glimmer of hope to Trump supporters. The forecast showed Trump with a slight edge over Harris. "Although we wouldn't advise worrying too much about the difference between a 52/48 race one way versus a 48/52 race the other way it's not a big difference this wasn't a good day for Kamala Harris in our model, as Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3," Silver noted in an update.
The key to Trump's newfound favoritism, according to Silver, is Pennsylvania. "It's been quite a while" since a poll showed Harris leading in this potential tipping point state, he said. Two recent polls underscore this point. An Emerson College poll revealed a tie between Harris and Trump, each receiving 48 percent support from respondents in Pennsylvania. Similarly, a Pinpoint Policy Institute poll showed Trump edging out Harris by a single point.
However, not all polls reflect Trump's lead. An ActiVote survey showed Harris leading by two points. Silver's model also factors in a "convention bounce adjustment" to Harris's recent numbers, reflecting her gains in national polls. "The model has the Electoral College/popular vote gap opening up again, a concern for Harris all along," Silver wrote. He noted that the model gives Harris a 17 percent chance of winning the popular vote but not the Electoral College.
In contrast, FiveThirtyEight's election model gave Harris an advantage on Thursday. It predicted Harris would win 59 out of 100 times, securing 291 Electoral College votes to Trump's 247. According to FiveThirtyEight's forecast, Harris is expected to carry key swing states such as Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Trump is favored in Georgia and North Carolina.
The fluctuating forecasts and polls underscore the uncertainty surrounding the 2024 presidential race. With the election still a year away, the political landscape is likely to continue shifting, keeping voters and political pundits on their toes. As the race tightens, the importance of key swing states like Pennsylvania becomes increasingly clear, potentially determining the outcome of the election.
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