The momentum that Vice President Kamala Harris gained after being named the Democratic presidential nominee seems to have dissipated, with former President Donald Trump maintaining his strength, as per a prominent pollster's analysis.
As reported by Western Journal, Rasmussen Reports' lead pollster, Mark Mitchell, shared his insights on the shifting political landscape in a recent post. Mitchell highlighted Trump's resilience against what he termed "the Obama bounce." He elaborated, "What Trump has basically done is survive a coordinated 'info op' to try and paint Kamala Harris as super likable, super competent. A lot of coordinated media attention, a lot of coordinated attacks on Donald Trump and J. D. Vance."
Mitchell's polling data initially showed Trump leading Harris, with Harris subsequently reducing Trump's lead over her from 16 points to six. "And if we had done a poll on the 24th and 25th, we actually would have showed Donald Trump losing slightly to Kamala Harris," Mitchell noted. He attributed this shift to the time when Harris received Obama's endorsement.
However, Mitchell observed a reversal in this trend, with Trump regaining his lead. "But since then what you can see is Donald Trump has steadily clawed that lead back, and he's up four points on the 30th 5 points on the 31st. I think what you're seeing there on the chart is literally her bounce fading and Donald Trump settling back into what's probably a 4 to 5-point lead right now," he explained. Mitchell predicted a downward trajectory for Harris and her team from this point forward.
Despite acknowledging the positive coverage Harris is likely to receive during the Democratic National Convention, Mitchell emphasized Trump's strong position. "But to me, the headline is, Trump is winning comfortably, and before all this happened, in polls that had him winning comfortably, he was winning in every single swing state. So it's Trump's race right now," he stated.
The Real Clear Politics average of polls indicates a 1.2 percentage point lead for Trump over Harris. However, it also notes that out of the 10 most recent polls, Trump won seven, while Harris won three.
Trump has expressed his desire to debate Harris on Fox News on Sept. 4 before a live audience. His running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, believes that an unscripted debate could be detrimental for Harris. "The thing that we've learned about Kamala over the last four years, is she's incredibly bad if she's not scripted, right?" Vance said.
Vance underscored the importance of having an audience for the debate. "You're supposed to lead people, and to lead people you actually have to sort of like people and engage with them well," he said. He further suggested that a live audience would highlight Trump's natural leadership abilities and the public's apparent disinterest in Harris. "So, I think it's good. Hopefully, it happens, and hopefully Kamala Harris agrees to it. If she doesn't, then, clearly, she's the one who's afraid to debate," Vance concluded.
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