In the political landscape of New York City, Mayor Eric Adams finds himself in the crosshairs of a challenge from the city's progressive Comptroller, Brad Lander, for the 2025 mayoral race.
Adams, who first ascended to the mayor's office in 2021, has had a rollercoaster tenure, marked by the influx of over 175,000 migrants, skyrocketing housing costs, and a burgeoning homelessness crisis.
According to Newsweek, Adams' reign has been a divisive one, splitting the city's populace along ideological lines. The progressive faction has taken umbrage at his policies, particularly his recent backtrack on library funding cuts and his staunch support for Israel. On the other hand, conservative New Yorkers have expressed dissatisfaction with his management of the migrant crisis and public safety. This discontent, mirrored in his dwindling approval ratings, has given his critics hope for a potential contender.
Brad Lander, the city's Comptroller, has emerged as the first high-profile Democrat to throw his hat into the ring against Adams. Lander, seen as a more progressive alternative, has focused on issues such as the library budget cuts, housing, child care, and park maintenance in his campaign announcement video.
With the election still over a year away, polling data remains sparse. However, a survey conducted by the conservative-leaning Manhattan Institute think tank suggests a potential shift in voter sentiment. The poll, conducted from April 8 to April 11 among 700 likely voters, revealed that 65 percent of New Yorkers would prefer "someone else" over Adams, who managed to secure only 16 percent of the vote. An additional 19 percent remained undecided.
The poll, however, did not present any specific alternatives, leaving it uncertain whether Lander could sway those respondents who expressed a preference for a candidate other than Adams.
Contrarily, a Slingshot Strategies poll conducted in May 2023 among 1,500 registered voters suggested a lead for Adams over Lander, with 48 percent of respondents favoring Adams and 17 percent leaning towards Lander. A significant 35 percent were still undecided.
A Quinnipiac University poll from December 2023 painted a grim picture for Adams, revealing the "lowest job approval rating for a New York City mayor since Quinnipiac University began polling New York City registered voters in 1996." The survey, which polled 1,297 registered voters from November 30 to December 4, 2023, found that only 28 percent approved of Adams' performance, while a staggering 58 percent disapproved.
Adams' initial election in 2021 was a historic one, marking the first use of ranked-choice voting in the Democratic primary for the mayoral race. This system allows voters to "rank" candidates in order of preference, with the first candidate to secure 50 percent of the votes emerging victorious. In the first round, Adams received 30.7 percent of the vote, the highest among all candidates. After the ranked-choice process, he secured 50.4 percent, narrowly edging out Kathryn Garcia, then the commissioner of the city's sanitation department, who received 49.6 percent.
Adams went on to clinch the general election with a commanding 67.4 percent of the vote, leaving Republican Curtis Sliwa trailing with 27.9 percent. As the political tides shift and the 2025 mayoral race looms, it remains to be seen whether Adams can weather the storm of discontent and secure a second term.
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