The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, released on Tuesday, indicates a slight edge for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump, following Joe Biden's unexpected withdrawal from the presidential race and subsequent endorsement of his Vice President.
However, a closer look at the poll's methodology reveals a significant increase in the proportion of Democrat voters surveyed, compared to a previous poll on the same subject.
According to The Post Millennial, the poll conducted between July 22 and 23, surveyed 1,241 Americans, of which 1,018 were registered voters. The results showed that Harris received 44 percent support among registered voters, while Trump garnered 42 percent. This two-point difference falls within the poll's 3.3 percent margin of error for registered voters.
In contrast, an earlier poll conducted in early July, before Biden's departure from the race, showed Trump leading Harris by 43 to 42 percent among registered voters. This poll surveyed 1,070 Americans, with 892 being registered voters.
The composition of the respondents in the two polls is noteworthy. In the early July poll, the respondents included 348 Democrats, 322 Republicans, and 303 independents. However, in the latest poll, the number of Democrats surveyed increased to 426, while the number of Republicans and independents polled were 376 and 341, respectively.
As reported by The Post Millennial, the percentage of Democrat voters polled in the latest survey increased by 1.5 percent from the early July survey, rising from 35.7 percent to 37.2 percent. Conversely, the share of Republican voters polled dropped slightly by 0.2 percent, from 33 to 32.8 percent. The proportion of independent voters also decreased by 1.3 percent, from 31.1 to 29.8 percent.
The recent poll revealed that 84 percent of Democrats would vote for Harris, compared to 4 percent of Republicans and 38 percent of Independents. For Trump, the support was 3 percent among Democrats, 89 percent among Republicans, and 30 percent among independents. Interestingly, these figures closely mirror those from the early July poll.
These poll results, while indicative of a slight lead for Harris, must be interpreted with caution due to the increased proportion of Democrat voters surveyed. This shift in the demographic composition of the respondents could potentially skew the results, underscoring the importance of considering the methodology when interpreting poll data.
Login