The Republican convention in Milwaukee recently showcased a remarkable display of unity, following a period of internal division.
The party's central message, "Trump has provided us with greater wealth and security," resonated powerfully with the audience. According to The New York Post, the Republicans astutely shifted their approach, focusing more on policy differences rather than resorting to personal attacks. Instead of labeling Democrats as Marxists, they presented a case that the left's progressive economic and social policies have been unsuccessful.
In contrast, the Democrats, having effectively suppressed any significant dissent about their candidate, are burdened with a weak and unpopular leader that voters do not favor. They have reverted to their old habit of argument by epithet, but their mantra that "Trump is an existential threat to democracy" is increasingly falling on deaf ears.
With the Democrats seemingly headed for a significant defeat in the upcoming November elections, the US appears to be on the brink of a political and cultural realignment that could have long-lasting implications. Almost every poll indicates that the sun belt swing states North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada are out of reach for the Democrats, making Biden's only path to 270 electoral votes a highly unlikely sweep of the Rust Belt swing states. However, he consistently lags in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
The traditionally reliable blue states of Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota are also up for grabs. A key issue for the Democrats, apart from their candidate, is their unwavering belief in the "Demography is Destiny" theory. This theory, first adopted during the second Obama administration in 2012, posits that Democrats can assemble a multicultural coalition of the working class, the young, and voters of color through continuous appeals to identity politics and welfare state patronage.
The Biden presidency has put this theory to the test, and the results are not encouraging. Democratic elites proudly tout Biden's legislative achievements on COVID stimulus, infrastructure, and green energy all of which involved massive deficit spending, welfare expansion, and industrial planning. However, voters are less interested in legislative accomplishments. They see this record deficit spending leading to 20% inflation, which has negated any real income gains during the Biden years. They see job growth primarily in government and healthcare sectors. They perceive EV mandates as outsourcing working-class jobs to China and damaging the economy while achieving little in terms of climate change.
Despite the Democrats' claims of supporting the working class, recent polls show that working-class voters now favor Trump by a significant 17 points. In 2012, President Obama won the Hispanic vote by 71% to 27%. Left-leaning politicians and activists believed they could solidify this advantage through identity appeals on lax immigration enforcement. Some progressive Democrats even suggested abolishing ICE. However, younger Hispanics did not respond as expected.
Like increasing numbers of black voters, young Hispanics appear more attracted to Trump's economic populism message rather than identity pandering. Trump is now tied with Biden for the Hispanic vote in the combined Wall Street Journal average of polls. In 2020, Biden won 92% of the black vote. Now, after continuous appeals through DEI initiatives that often prioritize unpopular equity quotas for favored groups over addressing performance gaps, Biden's black support stands at 68% according to the WSJ average.
In 2016, 51% of young men identified with the Democratic party; the figure today is 39%. For the first time in decades, more young men identify with the GOP today than the Democrats. Some 84% of young voters think Biden is too old to be effective, according to a recent New York Times/Siena poll. Trump scores 24 points better on the same question.
The Republicans are showing signs of moving towards the center, dropping references to abortion and "traditional marriage" from their platform. In contrast, the Democrats show no signs of any course correction. In 2013, 70% of Americans said the Republican Party was out of touch according to ABC/Washington Post polls. Interestingly, 62% of Americans now think its the Democrats who are out of touch.
There are indications of other larger cultural shifts underway. The day after the Trump assassination attempt, the executives at MSNBC pulled its show Morning Joe from the air, seemingly believing the hosts and guests were more interested in activism than hard news.
The concealment of Biden's mental capacity by party leaders and the collapse of the left's ideology may not only lead to a landslide victory for Trump in the fall it may also signal a political and cultural shift of generational significance. If this is the case, the Democrats and the left will have no one to blame but themselves.
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