The financial district is in a state of unease, fearing that the economic strategies of former President Donald Trump, if he were to secure a second term, could potentially hamper economic growth.
However, experts have shared with Conservative Daily News that it is the average American citizen who could reap the benefits of such policies.
The financial world is increasingly speculating that Trump could reclaim the presidency, particularly in light of President Joe Biden's lackluster debate performance in late June. The concern lies in Trump's immigration and trade policies, which, according to Politico, could potentially hinder overall economic growth. However, experts who spoke to Conservative Daily News argue that while these policies may impact headline economic figures, they could provide significant benefits to the average American worker grappling with the consequences of a significant influx of illegal immigration and unfavorable trade policies.
Trump's political career has been marked by a strong emphasis on populist policies, prioritizing trade protectionism and American manufacturing. These principles align with Trump's proposed immigration policies for a potential second term, including a pledge to carry out the largest domestic mass deportation, as he announced during a campaign speech in Iowa in December.
Michael Faulkender, chief economist at the America First Policy Institute, told Conservative Daily News, "What the Biden administration has done is they have just essentially stopped enforcing border laws, and they parole these illegal immigrants into our country. They give them work visas. And this is why people on the left are saying that Trumps policies would cause inflation. Its because if we deport all of those workers, then somehow we wouldnt have enough workers to do all the work thats currently being done."
Recent data reveals a rise of over 600,000 in employed foreign-born workers in the past year, bringing the total to nearly 31 million. In contrast, the number of employed native-born Americans fell by nearly 300,000. This discrepancy suggests that under Biden's administration, foreign-born workers are reaping more benefits than native-born Americans.
E.J. Antoni, a public finance economist and Richard F. Aster fellow at the Heritage Foundation, told Conservative Daily News about the potential impact of Trump's immigration policy in a second term, "The average American is no longer going to have to compete against the incredibly low-wage labor that is driving down the standard of living. In other words, you will increasingly see businesses pay living wages to their employees."
Antoni further explained, "This was actually a key reason why a lot of blue-collar jobs saw such rapid wage growth during the first Trump term. It was because they really helped stem the tide of illegal immigration that existed before Trump. As less of that illegal labor came across the border, it helped buoy the labor market, at least for Americans."
Trade protectionism, a key aspect of Trump's economic policy during his first term, remains a significant part of his proposed agenda for a second term. This approach involves imposing tariffs on imports, particularly from foreign competitors like China, and promoting American manufacturing.
Faulkender pointed out, "Take a look at the significant application of tariffs that President Trump did during his first term. We had sub 2% inflation during his entire presidency. So if applying tariffs at the scale President Trump has talked about were to be as inflationary as the Democrats or demagoguing people into believing, where was the inflation during President Trumps presidency?"
However, Peter Earle, senior economist at the American Institute for Economic Research, disagrees with the effectiveness of tariffs, arguing that these trade policies ultimately burden American business owners and consumers by raising costs through inflation.
Earle told Conservative Daily News, "Because disinflation is underway, for now, it seems less likely that the concern is higher rates of inflation in coming years owing to monetary policy. Its more likely that worries about Trumps promised tariffs are causing higher yields on longer-term bonds. Tariffs increase the costs of imported goods, and if they are put on a wide variety of goods can give rise in the overall price level of goods and services."
Earle further warned, "To be sure, his recent call for 60% tariffs would be devastating to world trade, even beyond the U.S. and China. When costs to businesses rise, such as those for inputs which are imported, consumer prices will rise."
Despite these concerns, economists like Faulkender believe that Trump's economic and trade policies could benefit Americans across the board. "The Trump era was very good for average Americans, for working-class Americans, and it was good for investors," Faulkender told Conservative Daily News.
"If you look at the stock markets performance during the Trump administration, it did exceptionally well. I really just dispute this analysis, coming from the left, that suggests that the economy is this zero-sum game and that benefiting workers is bad for investors. With the right set of policies, we can improve outcomes for investors and workers alike. That was the record under President Trump, and thats what I expect the second term to go back to."
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