The Baltic Sea, now humorously referred to as the "NATO Lake" by some Western officials, has long been a potential hotspot for conflict between Russia and its international adversaries.
The sea, almost entirely surrounded by NATO nations following Finland and Sweden's recent alliance membership, serves as a crucial global access point for Russia's Baltic Fleet, which operates from the strategic ports of St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad. It also facilitates shipping worth approximately $160 billion annually.
The Baltic Sea is increasingly becoming a critical battleground in the West's revitalized efforts to restrain and neutralize Moscow, as President Vladimir Putin and his allies threaten retaliation against NATO's newest members for their perceived audacity in abandoning decades of official neutrality. The control of a few lightly defended islands, which some observers believe represent a significant vulnerability on NATO's northern front, may determine the outcome of any future conflict, whether hybrid or conventional.
The land Islands of Finland and Sweden's Gotland are situated in the middle of the Baltic Sea. The former is almost halfway between the two countries, while the latter faces the coastlines of Latvia and Lithuania to its east, lying along the maritime route from Kaliningrad to St. Petersburg. Following Russia's annexation of Ukraine and the instigation of rebellion in eastern Ukraine, Sweden reinstated permanent troops on Gotland in 2016 and has been gradually expanding its military presence there ever since. This reinforcement of the island could serve as a model for Helsinki, although Finnish leaders have so far been hesitant.
According to a 2022 poll by the Yle broadcaster, 58 percent of Finns would support a military presence on the autonomous 7,000-island archipelago, which was once part of the Swedish and then Russian empires. Only 16 percent said they would oppose such a move, with the remaining 28 percent unsure. Security concerns around land pre-date Russia's war on Ukraine, but the invasion and Finland's accession to NATO have rekindled this sensitive issue.
Charly Salonius-Pasternak of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs argued in favor of deploying forces in the archipelago for close-range defense, stating last year to Yle, "You can ask those who are alive in Mariupol, how is it possible to defend something so far away." Pekka Toveri, a former head of Finnish intelligence and military major general who is now a member of parliament representing the ruling National Coalition Party, said ending land's demilitarization "would make it easier for us to react when necessary and increase the safety of the landers and the rest of us if the situation worsens."
However, Bloomberg reported this week that the 30,000 residents of the land Islands do not necessarily share the urgency of their compatriots. "I wouldn't say that we are afraid, but we are alert," land government leader Katrin Sjogren told the outlet. "At times like these, it becomes more important than ever to look for solutions that push the pendulum back toward peace."
The Russian consulate in the island's capital city of Mariehamn has been the center of local action. More than 50,000 Finns signed a petition to close the facility, but parliament and the government have so far declined to do so.
New Finnish President Alexander Stubb was cautious when asked about the issue during this year's election. "The matter of demilitarizing land cannot be simplified into a yes-or-no answer," he said during a debate with opponent Pekka Haavisto. "During our NATO membership process, land's status did not pose any problem for our allies, and Finland has no immediate need to make it a problem. Issues like this are not resolved by following current trends, but through careful consideration and in close cooperation with our Western partners."
"Of course, we can discuss removing land's demilitarized status, but these debates must be conducted calmly, in collaboration with land residents as well as our allies."
Finland's neighbors to the west have been less hesitant. Gotland's new regiment was deployed in 2018, and includes some 400 troops, a mechanized battalion with CV90 armored vehicles and Leopard 2 tanks, and a Home Guard amphibious battalion. Air defense systems were reactivated in 2021.
Russia's renewed assault on Ukraine in 2022 saw the garrison on Gotland reinforced, with the government subsequently committing some $160 million to upgrade the military infrastructure there.
Sweden's NATO accession has made the Gotland issue even more pointed. "I'm sure that Putin even has both eyes on Gotland," Micael Bydnthe supreme commander of Sweden's armed forcestold the German editorial network RND this week. "Putin's goal is to gain control of the Baltic Sea."
"If Russia takes control and seals off the Baltic Sea, it would have an enormous impact on our livesin Sweden and all other countries bordering the Baltic Sea. We can't allow that," Bydn added.
"The Baltic Sea must not become Putin's playground where he terrifies NATO members."
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