On a recent episode of Fox News' "Hannity," host Sean Hannity and guest Mark Penn, Chairman of The Harris Poll, engaged in a spirited discussion about the potential impact of Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the 2024 presidential election.
The conversation centered on whether Kennedy's "radical" views would deter Republican voters, and who he would most likely draw votes from in a three-way race with President Joe Biden and the presumed Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump.
Hannity initiated the discussion by showing a clip in which Kennedy expressed his support for full-term abortion. He then posed a question to Penn, asking, "Theres been a lot of speculation, will RFK Jr. help Republicans or help Democrats? Help Biden or help Trump? Okay, some conservatives kind of liked his position on vaccines, besides that I would say that this is probably even a little to the left of Joe Biden. So in a three-person race, who is he more likely to take votes from?
Penn responded by pointing out that despite Kennedy's controversial views, he is relatively well-liked, garnering about 15% of the vote in polls. He suggested that Kennedy is drawing votes almost equally from both sides, perhaps slightly more from Biden, due to his visibility on conservative platforms discussing issues such as vaccines.
However, Hannity challenged Penn's assessment, questioning whether Republicans would continue to support Kennedy once they became aware of his more radical views. As Hannity spoke, the show displayed a list of Kennedy's positions, including blaming America for 9/11, praising Fidel Castro, calling it a "sin" not to address global warming, and advocating for the elimination of fracking.
Hannity interrupted Penn, saying, Mark, let me interrupt if I may. When conservatives and Republicans Im scrolling his positions on the screen, I just mentioned the most radical left-wing positions. When Republicans learn what Im now weve now done our vetting of RFK. By the way I liked him, he wont come on the show anymore. They wont even return our calls to come on the show. Ive offered to talk to him, Ill be fair to him I was fair to him during a town hall. He wont come on because he doesnt want his record to be exposed. So the reality is, youre telling me that when Republicans around the country know what Im now putting on the screen youre saying to me you think therell be Republicans voting for RFK? I say, you are dead wrong.
Penn conceded that Kennedy's support among Republicans could drop significantly if they became aware of his views. He noted that some Republicans who are dissatisfied with the current options might see Kennedy as an alternative, but agreed with Hannity that Kennedy would likely lose many Republican votes if his positions were widely broadcast.
A recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll shed some light on the potential dynamics of a three-way race involving Kennedy, Trump, and Biden. The poll, which surveyed 1,000 registered voters, found that Trump and Biden were tied at 37%, with Kennedy receiving 8% of the vote and 5% going to other third-party candidates.
The poll also revealed that nearly a quarter of voters might change their minds before the November election, and 12% had not yet made a choice. These findings suggest that the 2024 election could be highly unpredictable, with Kennedy potentially playing a significant role.
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