The prospect of a military conflict between Iran and Israel is a matter of grave concern, with experts warning that such a confrontation would not be beneficial for any party involved in the region.
They predict that it would likely escalate into a full-blown war, with regional forces opting to maintain a safe distance. This analysis was shared with Fox News Digital.
"Frankly, none of the Arab states would want to take either side in this conflict," stated Matt McInnis, a senior fellow at the Institute for the Study of War. He expressed concern that these states might be unwillingly dragged into the conflict, a scenario that Iran is particularly apprehensive about.
McInnis further elaborated on Iran's uncertainty regarding Israel's recent diplomatic and security overtures towards countries such as Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar, and Kuwait. He questioned whether these efforts would be sufficient to deter these states from getting involved in a larger conflict.
Discussing the potential implications of a large-scale conflict, McInnis said, "Our bases and others in those countries, in a larger and larger conflict as part of our support and defense of Israel is obviously very complicated." He speculated that Syria would likely align with Iran, but the material support this alliance could provide, beyond possibly allowing Iran to use Syrian territory for attacks, remains uncertain.
Meanwhile, Tehran continues to threaten retaliation against Israel for an attack on an Iranian consulate in Damascus that resulted in the death of seven members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including two generals.
In response to these threats, U.S. CENTCOM Gen. Michael Kurilla visited Israel to meet with Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant to assess military preparedness. This visit was expedited due to the escalating threats from Iran, as confirmed by Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder during a press conference.
John Kirby, U.S. Nation Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications, assured reporters that the U.S. is in "constant communication" with Israeli counterparts to ensure their readiness for any potential attack. However, he declined to provide specific details about these discussions or the intelligence picture.
Jonathan Conricus, a former spokesman for the IDF and currently a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), commented on the heightened media attention and tension in Israel following the Damascus attack. Speaking on FDD's Morning Brief podcast, he expressed confidence in Iran's strategic patience.
"They are disciplined, they are long-term thinkers, they do not take rash decisions based on emotions even though the rhetoric is high," Conricus stated. He further argued that it would not be in Iran's best interest to attack Israel, as it would shift the focus onto Iran's hostile activities in the Middle East and their nuclear plans, relieving pressure on Israel from its ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon.
Gen. Jack Keane of the Institute for the Study of War (IFSW) appeared on "Fox & Friends," where he predicted that an attack from Iran is inevitable due to the international publicity surrounding the attack on the IRGC headquarters in Syria. He suggested that the most effective way to handle Iran was to target its IRGC assets, as Iran has a weak military and relies heavily on its drone and missile arsenal.
Keane insisted that a war would economically devastate Iran and potentially lead to the downfall of its regime. He argued that the leverage has always been on the side of Israel, the United States, and the West, but they have consistently refused to use it.
McInnis concurred with Keane's assessment, but he suggested that the outcome would largely depend on the nature of the conflict. He speculated that in small-scale, personnel-driven engagements, Iran could potentially gain some advantage due to the integration of IRGC personnel with proxy forces like Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Bill Roggio, founder and editor of "The Long War Journal," emphasized Iran's reliance on proxy groups to wage war and maintain a level of response without triggering rampant escalation. He argued that Iran and Israel are already at war, with Israel currently under attack by Iranian proxies.
Roggio also pointed out that Russia and China have significant political and diplomatic interests in Iran, which they invited to join the BRICS economic bloc last year. He suggested that Iran and China could provide support to keep the conflict "hot," but the specifics of how this might occur remain unclear.
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