The retirement announcement of Arizona GOP Rep. Debbie Lesko has set the stage for a competitive race in 2024, with several prominent Republican candidates already vying for the seat.
Lesko, who has served in Congress since 2018, made the decision in mid-October to forgo another term and return home to Arizona. This prompted Republicans across the state to jump into the race for the solid-red seat.
Among the candidates running for the chance to succeed Lesko are former GOP attorney general nominee Abe Hamadeh, former GOP Senate nominee Blake Masters, Arizona House Speaker Ben Toma, state Sen. Anthony Kern, and former Republican Rep. Trent Franks.
According to Barrett Marson, an Arizona-based Republican strategist, an open seat in a safe district like this one is bound to attract numerous candidates who see it as an opportunity for a long-term congressional career or as a stepping stone to something else.
Hamadeh, an Army veteran and former prosecutor in Maricopa County, narrowly lost the race for Arizona attorney general in 2022 with the support of former President Donald Trump. He launched his congressional campaign on Twitter just hours after Lesko's announcement. Hamadeh believes that his experience running a statewide campaign has given him a unique perspective on the issues facing Arizona and the nation.
Masters, who ran for Senate in last year's midterms against Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, also with Trump's endorsement, lost by nearly 5 points. After speculation that he might make another run for the Senate in 2024, Masters decided to run for Congress instead. He plans to focus on securing the border, reducing inflation, bolstering the economy, and addressing the threats posed by Big Tech.
Toma, who lives in the district and has been representing a portion of it in the Arizona legislature since 2017, launched his campaign with the backing of Lesko. He emphasized his track record in the state legislature and pointed out the lack of political experience of his opponents. Toma believes that living in the district is important to base Republican voters and that it sets him apart from the other candidates.
Kern, a state senator who also lives in and represents a portion of the district, jumped into the race shortly after Toma. Kern, who was endorsed by Trump in his state Senate race, wants to focus on election integrity and solving the border crisis. He believes that his name recognition and grassroots support will help him win the race.
Franks, who represented the 8th Congressional District for roughly 15 years, is running for the seat again. He resigned in December 2017 after asking two female staffers to carry his child, which prompted an investigation by the House Ethics Committee. Franks believes that his years of seniority in Congress and his conservative record will serve as assets to his campaign.
While Hamadeh and Masters are leading in some polls, Marson noted that they don't have voting records like the other elected officials in the race. He also mentioned that neither of them lives in the district, which could be a disadvantage. Brian Murray, former Arizona GOP executive director, questioned their decision to run for a seat outside of their districts, saying that it leaves a bad taste in the voters' mouths.
The Cook Political Report classifies Lesko's open seat as "Solid Republican" for 2024, with a "R+10" partisan score. This means that the district is considered strongly Republican, making it a favorable race for the Republican candidates. However, endorsements and fundraising will play a significant role in determining the strength of each candidate.
As the race for Arizona's 8th Congressional District heats up, it remains to be seen which candidate will emerge as the frontrunner and ultimately secure the Republican nomination. With a solidly Republican district, the winner of the primary will have a strong chance of winning the general election in 2024.
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