Former President Barack Obama has reportedly expressed concerns over the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House in the 2024 presidential race, reflecting the growing apprehension within the Democratic Party about President Biden's re-election prospects.
An anonymous source familiar with Obama's thoughts revealed to The Wall Street Journal that the 44th president believes the upcoming race will be a tight one and that the Democrats could very well lose. Obama is also reportedly worried about the implications of a Trump victory for democracy, describing the alternative as "pretty dangerous."
These concerns are echoed by David Axelrod, Obama's former top political advisor and a key figure in his successful 2008 campaign. Axelrod has been vocal about Biden's vulnerabilities, particularly his declining favorability ratings, which he characterizes as "very, very dark" news.
"Job approval down, ratings generally down, most of the comparatives with Trump not good," Axelrod stated in a recent podcast. He further expressed his worries about the rationalization of votes, indicating that these are signs usually seen when people begin to justify their voting choices.
Despite Axelrod's stark predictions, Biden's campaign has acknowledged that the 2024 race will be a close one. "Make no mistake, 2024 will be a close election. And we know that we can't take anything for granted. We've been saying that from the beginning," Julie Chvez Rodrguez, Biden's campaign manager, emphasized to reporters last month.
Current polls show Biden trailing both nationally and in key battleground states, with voters expressing significant concerns about his age. According to the RealClearPolitics aggregate, Biden is behind Trump by 3.5 percentage points nationally. He is also lagging in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, while in Wisconsin, Biden and Trump are neck and neck.
Some Democratic strategists have downplayed the negative polling, arguing that Trump, the likely Republican nominee, has not been under as much scrutiny recently. There have also been questions raised about the validity of the polls, with some pointing out that a 3.5 percentage point national lead for Trump may not be as significant given that a GOP presidential candidate has not won the popular vote since 2004.
Despite the unfavorable polling, Biden's allies maintain that he is the Democrats' best chance of defeating Trump in 2024. "If Trump wasn't running, I'm not sure I'd be running," Biden stated at a fundraising event near Boston earlier this month. "We cannot let him win."
In November, the Biden campaign celebrated key victories in Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, and other states during the off-year elections. "Time and again, Biden beats expectations. Happened in 2020, happened in 2022, happened on Tuesday night," communications director Michael Tyler told reporters following the victories.
Biden is widely expected to be the Democratic nominee next year. If he wins re-election, he will be 86 by the end of a second hypothetical term in office. The Biden campaign has been contacted for comment.
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