The Texas House's recent approval of a congressional redistricting map has been hailed by President Donald Trump as a significant victory for the state and the Republican Party.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump expressed his enthusiasm for the development, stating, Big WIN for the Great State of Texas!!! Everything Passed, on our way to FIVE more Congressional seats and saving your Rights, your Freedoms, and your Country, itself. Texas never lets us down.
According to the Western Journal, Trump also highlighted the potential for other states, such as Florida and Indiana, to follow Texas' lead. He suggested that an increase in seats could result in reduced crime rates, a stronger economy, and a bolstered Second Amendment.
"More seats equals less Crime, a great Economy, and a STRONG SECOND AMENDMENT. It means Happiness and Peace, Trump asserted.
However, the President didn't stop at celebrating the redistricting victory. He also proposed a two-step plan to secure a 100-seat majority for the GOP.
"But Republicans, there is one thing even better STOP MAIL-IN VOTING, a total fraud that has no bounds. Also, go to PAPER BALLOTS before it is too late At one-tenth the cost, faster, and more reliable. If we do these TWO things, we will pick up 100 more seats, and the CROOKED game of politics is over, Trump declared.
The last time the Republican Party held a majority of over 100 seats in the House was following the 1928 general election. The party's largest majority came after the 1920 election, with a 170-seat advantage. Therefore, Trump's aspiration for a 100-seat majority, while ambitious, is not without historical precedent.
The Democrats have seemingly benefited from the mail-in ballot and early voting systems that have characterized recent election cycles. When a President's approval rating dips below 50 percent, his party typically suffers significant losses in the House of Representatives during the midterms. This pattern has held true for decades, often resulting in a loss of control over the chamber.
For instance, the Democrats lost 54 seats in 1994 when then-President Bill Clinton's approval rating was at 48 percent. Similarly, the Republicans lost 30 seats in 2006 when then-President George W. Bush's approval rating fell to 37 percent. In the 2010 midterms, when then-President Barack Obama's approval stood at 45 percent, the GOP gained 63 seats.
However, the 2022 midterms deviated from this pattern. Despite then-President Joe Biden's job approval rating standing at 40 percent in October of that year, the GOP only managed to secure a narrow 222 to 213 majority by gaining just 10 seats.
The Massachusetts Institute of Technologys Data Science Lab attributes this anomaly to a shift in voting methods. In 2010, approximately 74 percent of Americans voted in-person on Election Day. By 2022, this figure had dropped to under 50 percent.
MIT also raised concerns about the potential for increased voter fraud with Vote By Mail (VBM) systems. "Two major features of VBM raise these concerns. First, the ballot is cast outside the public eye, and thus the opportunities for coercion and voter impersonation are greater.
Second, the transmission path for VBM ballots is not as secure as traditional in-person ballots. These security concerns relate both to ballots being intercepted and ballots being requested without the voters permission, the institution noted.
Despite these concerns, the New York Times reported in January that Democrats still significantly outnumber Republicans in the use of mail-in ballots. However, the GOP made gains in 2024. In Pennsylvania, for example, the GOP's share of mail voters increased from 24 percent in 2020 to 33 percent in 2024.
Trump's call to ban mail-in voting could potentially pass the House, but it is unlikely to overcome a probable Democrat filibuster in the Senate. Therefore, it seems improbable that Trump's wish to end mail-in voting or see a 100-seat GOP majority in the House will be realized in the near future.
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