In a recent development, President Donald Trump has issued a stern warning to the Kremlin, revealing plans to supply weapons to Kyiv via Europe and threatening to impose "very severe tariffs" on Russia if it fails to negotiate a resolution to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine within 50 days.
The President, however, did not clarify whether a simple ceasefire would suffice or if a comprehensive peace agreement was necessary. Regardless, many experts believe that achieving either outcome within the given timeframe is highly unlikely.
According to American Military News, Russian President Vladimir Putin's ambitions extend far beyond merely annexing a portion of Ukraine. Putin has made it abundantly clear that he seeks to subdue Ukraine, weaken NATO and the West, and reestablish Moscow's influence over large parts of Europe, reminiscent of the Soviet era. His immediate goal, however, is territorial expansion.
Russia currently occupies approximately 20% of Ukraine, including the Crimean Peninsula, which it has controlled since 2014. Putin also falsely claims that the Ukrainian mainland regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhya, and Kherson are now Russian territories, including substantial areas that Russia does not currently occupy.
Russia has stipulated that a complete Ukrainian withdrawal from these four regions is a prerequisite for any peace agreement, a demand that Kyiv deems unacceptable. Despite the potential domestic backlash, Putin could endure if he agreed to a pact limiting Russia's presence to the territories it currently holds, he has shown no signs of willingness to do so.
Instead, Russia has consistently maintained this demand and has attempted to enforce its claim on the ground, particularly in the Donetsk region, and has continued to exert pressure on the devastated city of Pokrovsk.
In response to Trump's remarks, Kremlin-aligned lawmaker Konstantin Kosachyov stated on Telegram that "oh so much can change on the battlefield in 50 days." This suggests that Russia may intensify its offensive in the coming weeks, not only in the provinces it claims but also in other areas such as the Kharkiv and Sumy regions north of Donetsk. In June, Putin issued a thinly veiled threat to capture the city of Sumy.
However, the reality of warfare dictates that there is a limit to what can be achieved in six weeks on the battlefield. Russia's incremental gains have come at a massive cost, with casualties estimated to be close to 1 million killed or wounded since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Despite the impossibility of Russia seizing the remaining parts of the four regions by September, Putin's desire to secure control over them on paper ahead of any deal may only intensify.
Dmitry Gudkov, a former opposition lawmaker in the Russian parliament, told Current Time on July 16, "To me, it's clear that Putin does not want any ceasefire, at least not until he gains control over all the regions that are defined as Russian in his version of the constitution. In essence, it would mean Ukraine's capitulation."
Since taking office six months ago, Trump has been attempting to broker an end to the war in Ukraine. Despite facing resistance from Putin, most notably his carefully worded rejection of the US call for a 30-day ceasefire, Trump has been increasingly critical of Putin in recent weeks.
However, the 50-day ultimatum marks the first time Trump has issued a direct challenge to the Kremlin, a form of pressure that Putin, who insists on equal treatment for Russia, appears to dislike. Therefore, it remains unclear whether this ultimatum increases or decreases the chances of a deal.
Putin has remained silent on Trump's remarks, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has not commented on them. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who oversees Moscow's relations with the US, stated on July 15 that "any attempts to make demands, especially ultimatums, are unacceptable to us." He further added, "If we cannot achieve our goals through diplomacy, then the [war against Ukraine] will continue. This is an unshakable position."
The Kremlin may be hoping that Trump's recent stance against Putin is not as steadfast and that if no deal is reached by September, Trump will shift at least some of the blame onto Kyiv. Tatyana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, wrote that those who believe Trump's current focus is "transient" and the increased support for Ukraine is "a maneuver designed to increase pressure on Putin and test whether this approach yields results."
Trump has previously blamed Ukraine for the ongoing conflict. During his July 14 remarks, he emphasized his hope that the push for a deal within 50 days will "have an impact on Ukraine also." He added, "We want to make sure that Ukraine does what they have to do. All of a sudden, they may feel emboldened and maybe they don't want [a deal] this is a very difficult situation."
However, there are at least two reasons why the threat of sanctions seems unlikely to push Putin much closer to a deal with Ukraine to halt or end the war at this point. One is the ambiguity surrounding the measures Trump threatened, primarily tariffs or sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil. The other reason is that Russia has so far weathered Western sanctions, and the Kremlin has taken pride in this, framing it as part of the narrative that Russia is successfully defending itself in a major confrontation with the West.
The same may apply to the increased weapons shipments that Trump has promised Ukraine, with NATO allies bearing the cost by purchasing Patriot air-defense missile systems and other arms from the United States or sending Kyiv weapons they have already received.
Daniel Fried, a fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank and an architect of US sanctions against Russia after it seized Crimea in 2014, stated that if Trump's announcements on weapons for Ukraine and economic pressure on Russia are "crystallized, sharpened, and implemented," it could significantly alter the course of the war and the path to peace.
However, other analysts suggest that this is unlikely to happen anytime soon, if at all. Mark Galeotti, a Russia expert, stated on the This Is Not A Drill podcast, "I thinkwe're going to need to see the United States showing a lot more muscle if it really is going to be able to bring Putin to the table in any kind of meaningful way."
The prevailing view in Russia is that "none of these developments will alter Putin's strategy of coercing Kyiv into capitulation by any available means," Stanovaya wrote. Alexander Gabuev, director of Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, wrote on July 14 that "Putin will not be beaten out of his war optimism easily, and he believes [Trump] has few cards." He added, "This is why he isn't interested in a deal [thats] not on his terms."
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