In the wake of a devastating Israeli airstrike that decimated its top military leadership and severely hampered its nuclear program, Iran finds itself isolated in the Middle East.
The strike has left the Shi'a state in a precarious position, with even its own terror proxy groups refraining from offering support.
According to Western Journal, the Lebanese-based group Hezbollah, traditionally an ally of Tehran, has announced it will not retaliate against Israel in support of Iran. Following the Israeli attacks on Iran, a Hezbollah official stated, Hezbollah will not initiate its own attack on Israel in retaliation for Israels strikes.
The group expressed its disapproval of Israel's actions, asserting that the Jewish state only knows killing, fire, and destruction. However, the group's statement conspicuously omitted any mention of a planned response to the strike.
Hezbollahs leader, Naim Qassem, echoed this sentiment, condemning the attacks as dangerous and criminal Israeli aggression, supported by the U.S. administration, against the Islamic Republic of Iran. Qassem vowed that the aggression will not pass without a response and punishment, as reported by The Wall Street Journal.
However, the Journal also noted that Lebanon's army is in communication with the Iranian-backed militia to avoid being drawn into conflict with Israel, casting doubt on the extent of Hezbollah's potential response.
Heiko Wimmen, project director of Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon at the International Crisis Group, suggested to German state broadcaster Deutsche Welle that this could signal a shift in the region's dynamics. He stated, The previous rule was that when Iran is attacked on its territory, it retaliates from its territory, implying that Hezbollah might be awaiting explicit instructions from Iran before taking action.
However, some analysts believe that Hezbollah, weakened after last year's conflict with Israel, may not be in a position to respond. Wimmen suggested that Hezbollah might be prioritizing internal restructuring, adding, Also, nobody really knows for sure what happened to those strategic missiles that Hezbollah supposedly had but never really used against Israel in last years war.
Founded in the aftermath of the Iranian revolution in 1979, Hezbollah has long been a favored terror proxy of the Iranian mullahs, largely due to its proximity to Israel. However, the group's influence has been waning, particularly following last year's losses and the formation of a new Lebanese government seeking to reestablish control over the country. The group's ability to retaliate has been further compromised by the loss of much of its leadership in a daring attack by Israel.
While Iran grapples with its isolation, the rest of the Middle East appears to be tacitly supporting Israel. Although not traditionally allies of the Jewish state, these nations seem to prefer Israel's dominance over the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran. Iran's other proxy groups, lacking the capacity to act if Hezbollah cannot, are unlikely to intervene. Assistance from Russia or China also seems improbable.
In essence, Iran's theocratic state has been significantly undermined, to the extent that even Hezbollah, once the crown jewel of its terror network, appears more like a fair-weather friend than a steadfast ally.
This situation underscores the shifting dynamics in the Middle East, where traditional alliances are being tested and new power structures are emerging.
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