In a recent poll, it was suggested that if Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) were to throw her hat into the ring for the position of New York's next governor, she would not only secure a significant lead in the Republican primary, but she could also pose a serious challenge to incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY).
The GrayHouse poll, conducted from April 22-24, 2025, surveyed 826 registered New York voters. The results indicated that if the Republican primary for the governorship were held today, Stefanik would receive the backing of 44 percent of voters. In contrast, Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) would garner a mere seven percent of the vote. Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman would receive five percent, while a significant 44 percent of voters remained undecided.
According to Breitbart, the poll highlighted Stefanik's strong image among Republican voters, with a net favorability of +47 (56% favorable, 9% unfavorable). This places her in a more favorable position than her potential rivals, Lawler (+28) and Blakeman (+18). Stefanik also holds a positive net favorability of +10 with Independents, compared to Lawler's +2 and Blakeman's -1.
Lawler, during an appearance on FOX Business's Mornings with Maria, told host Cheryl Casone that he would make his decision about running for governor "by June." He stated, Ill make my decision solely based on whether or not I believe theres a pathway to win. It wont be determined by anybody else. Ultimately, we will make a decision on who can make the best case to New Yorkers and defeat Kathy Hochul. Because at the end of the day, thats what its about.
The poll also revealed that a significant 61 percent of voters believe it is "time for someone new," while only 18 percent of registered voters said they would "probably re-elect" Hochul. A mere nine percent of voters said they would "definitely re-elect" Hochul, while 12 percent remained unsure.
When hypothetical match-ups for the 2026 New York gubernatorial election were proposed, 40 percent of voters said they would support Stefanik over Hochul, who would receive 46 percent of the vote. In a contest between Hochul and Lawler, the latter would receive 38 percent of the vote, while Hochul would secure 45 percent. In a race between Blakeman and Hochul, the Republican candidate would receive 36 percent of the vote, with Hochul garnering 44 percent.
Hochul's "net job approval rating" was described as "deeply underwater at -18 overall," with 36 percent of voters approving and 55 percent disapproving.
These findings coincide with a Siena College poll conducted from April 14-16, 2025, which surveyed 802 registered New York voters. The poll found that Hochul had a favorability rating of 44-43 percent, a slight increase from "40-50" percent in March, as reported by Spectrum News.
NBC News previously reported that "two sources" informed the outlet that Stefanik, who was initially nominated by Trump to serve as the United Nations Ambassador, was contemplating a run for New York governor. "One of the sources said Stefanik is seriously considering a run after she received encouragement from Republicans in New York, members of the Trump world and GOP donors," NBC News reported.
These poll results and potential candidacies underscore the shifting political landscape in New York and the growing desire for change among voters. As the race for the governorship heats up, the question remains: will the conservative appeal of candidates like Stefanik be enough to unseat Hochul and usher in a new era of Republican leadership in the Empire State? Only time will tell.
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