In a recent discussion, Harry Enten, a data reporter for CNN, cautioned that the current election polls may be undervaluing Vice President Kamala Harris, rather than former President Trump, who has been consistently undervalued in past election polls.
According to Fox News, Enten stated, "If the polls are going to underestimate Donald Trump, once again, that would be historically unprecedented." He further explained that pollsters usually adjust their methods when they realize they are undervaluing a certain demographic. This adjustment, he believes, is why no political party has been undervalued three consecutive times in presidential elections in the past half-century.
Enten was also questioned by CNN's John Berman about the implications of the 2022 midterm elections, where Democrats outperformed expectations, on the polling in crucial swing states. Enten responded, "What do we see in 2022 in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin? Well, it turns out that the average poll in those states actually underestimated Democrats by four points." He then suggested that if the polls continue to undervalue Democrats as they did in 2022, Harris could potentially secure a sweeping victory.
Enten further argued that while many are anticipating that Trump will once again be undervalued by the polls, the evidence suggests that it might be Harris who is being underestimated. He has previously warned that polls have consistently undervalued the former president, and while Trump was lagging behind Harris earlier in the cycle, the race for the White House in key swing states is now effectively a tie.
Nate Silver, a renowned polling expert, echoed Enten's sentiments in August, warning that Trump has been undervalued in the last two elections. In early October, Enten suggested that if the polls are as inaccurate as they were in 2020, Trump could secure a decisive victory. He stated, "What happens then? Well, then Donald Trump wins the election in a blowout with 312 electoral votes because he carries all these Great Lake battleground states plus Nevada, plus the other states he was leading in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia."
The ongoing debate about the accuracy of election polls continues to fuel uncertainty about the outcome of the upcoming presidential race. It remains to be seen whether the pollsters will adjust their methods to avoid underestimating either candidate, as they have in the past.
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