Articles By: Ethan
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Behind The Headlines: The Real Impact Of U.S. Airstrikes On ISIS In Nigeria
The recent U.S. airstrikes targeting Islamic State militants in northwestern Nigeria represent a significant intensification of efforts against a threat that has long challenged Nigeria's military capabilities.
According to Boston.com, President Donald Trump took to social media to describe the airstrikes in Sokoto state as "powerful and deadly," emphasizing that they were aimed at Islamic State militants who have been "targeting and viciously killing, primarily, innocent Christians." Despite this, local residents and security experts have pointed out that Nigeria's security challenges affect both Christians, who are mainly in the south, and Muslims, who form the majority in the north.
The Nigerian government acknowledged that the U.S. strikes were part of a broader intelligence-sharing and strategic coordination effort between the two nations.
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[/tweet_embed]The full impact of these airstrikes remains unverified, as the Associated Press has yet to confirm their extent. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth hinted at further actions in a post on X, stating, "More to come" Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation, is grappling with multiple armed groups, including two factions linked to the Islamic State.
These factions include the Islamic State West Africa Province, an offshoot of Boko Haram in the northeast, and the lesser-known Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP), locally referred to as Lakurawa, which has gained notoriety in the northwest.
While officials have not specified which group was targeted, security analysts suggest that if the strikes were indeed against Islamic State militants, they likely targeted Lakurawa. This group has become increasingly lethal in border states like Sokoto and Kebbi over the past year, frequently attacking remote communities and security forces.
The Nigerian military has previously noted that Lakurawa has roots in neighboring Niger and became more active in Nigeria's border regions following a 2023 military coup. This coup strained relations between Nigeria and Niger, complicating their joint military operations along the porous border.
Analysts have traced Lakurawa's presence in northwest Nigeria back to around 2017, when traditional authorities in Sokoto invited them to protect communities from bandit groups. However, the militants "overstayed their welcome, clashing with some of the community leaders and enforcing a harsh interpretation of sharia law that alienated much of the rural population," as noted by James Barnett, an Africa researcher with the Hudson Institute.
Malik Samuel, a Nigerian security researcher with Good Governance Africa, added, "Communities now openly say that Lakurawa are more oppressive and dangerous than the bandits they claim to protect them from."
Lakurawa has established control over territories in Sokoto and Kebbi states, becoming notorious for acts of violence, including killings, kidnappings, rape, and armed robbery. Some attacks attributed to Lakurawa are actually carried out by the Islamic State Sahel Province, which has expanded its reach from Niger's Dosso region into northwestern Nigeria, according to the U.S.-based Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project.
The project reported that "ISSP has maintained a low profile, operating covertly to infiltrate and entrench itself along the Niger-Nigeria border, and is now also expanding its operations toward the Beninese border."
The root of Nigeria's security issues lies more in governance than military might. The motives behind these attacks vary, but the gangs are often fueled by the near absence of state and security presence in conflict-prone areas, which facilitates recruitment.
These regions, data indicates, suffer from some of the highest levels of poverty, hunger, and unemployment in the country. Nigeria's Minister of Defense, Christopher Musa, previously stated that military action constitutes only 30% of the solution to the nation's security crisis, with the remaining 70% reliant on effective governance.
Samuel echoed this sentiment, saying, "The absence of the state in remote communities is making it easy for non-state actors to come in and present themselves to the people as the best alternative government."
The U.S. airstrikes on Thursday are seen as vital support for Nigeria's security forces, which are often overstretched and outgunned as they contend with multiple security crises across various regions. In states like Sokoto, the military frequently conducts airstrikes targeting militant hideouts, and Nigeria has initiated mass recruitment of security personnel.
However, analysts caution that military operations against these gangs are often not sustained, allowing militants to relocate swiftly on motorcycles through vast forests connecting several northern states. Additionally, militants frequently use hostages, including schoolchildren, as shields, complicating airstrike efforts.
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